Place of data analysis in election

Wed May 25th, 2022 - Bauchi

There is a need for data and empirical analysis in our elections. I was shocked when somebody once said sentiments rule elections, not data. I must state categorically that data rules everything.

The argument that only certain political parties can only win with a northern candidate is terribly flawed. I argued that if the North brought in all the votes, Muhammadu Buhari would have been president in 2011.The assumption that the North has a bulk vote calls for further interrogation. The North brings about 40 million votes while the South brings in 38 million registered voters. Voter apathy has also increased and be rest assured that it is less than 32 per cent of that number that will turn up to vote.

In the North, the three key states are Kaduna, Katsina and Kano. President Buhari won all these states and to win the presidential election, a candidate must either win or reduce the margin of loss in those states. In the 2011 elections, President Goodluck Jonathan split the Kaduna votes; he had over one million votes although President Buhari won Kaduna.

The key battle ground is always Kaduna, as the Kano pattern has not changed since 1979. In 1979, Kano voted Aminu Kano with 76 per cent. In 2015 and 2019, Kano voted President Buhari with a heavy margin. Katsina will also naturally go the way of the APC. Kaduna is a swing state, I argue because of its cosmopolitan nature and the religious spread, so anyone who targets Kaduna can win it in the next election, Apart from the key states in the North, Bauchi and Kebbi can give one the numbers but not like the Kaduna, Kano, and Kebbi states,

In the South, Lagos, Rivers and Delta can pull in big numbers but with voter apathy the numbers will be reduced, but those states being won with big margins can give a candidate three million votes. My benchmark for this argument is the 2015 general election. The recent decision by some parties to think that the North can pull out all the numbers is ill-informed and not empirical. Whoever will win needs to win big numbers in the North and South. The candidate must do well in Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, as a big showing in these states can put six million votes in the bag for any candidate, then it is incumbent to consolidate on other states.

Empirically it is projected that voter turnout will be low and rigging will also be made difficult by the new measures put in place by INEC and the new electoral laws.

Rufai Oseni, [email protected]


Revealed! Details Of South-West APC Leaders Meeting With Presidential Aspirants Supreme Court Has Cleared Civil Servants To Participate In Politics, Falana Tells FG Battle For New Alaafin Begins As Ruling Houses Insist On Producing Next Oba Court Admits More Evidence Against Alleged Fake Army General, Bolarinwa I’m Every Man’s Choice Now, My DM Is Crazy —Eniola Badmus It Is Now Bye To Decency: Crazy Fashion Trends At Owambe Parties


MONEY MAKING OPPORTUNITY- We will pay you in naira or dollars(whichever you prefer) directly to your designated bank account as you will earn from one or variety of businesses we invest in, ranging from Real estate, Agriculture, Transportation, Construction, Metals, Crude oil, Aviation, Hospitality etc. Click here for full details

Share FacebookTwitterGoogle+ReddItWhatsAppPinterestEmail

Prev Post

2023: We must get it right

You might also like Letters



source: Tribune